AUG 13

With all of the hubub about the Volt's 240 mile pre gallon rating (whether it's total bunk or not) the press wasn't really able to report on two bits of bad news that came out of GM at roughly the same time.

First, is the tidbit that came as part of GM's required reports to the U.S. government as part of their government loans. According Autocar, GM claims in the report that the range-extending technology may not be ready in time for the late 2010 release date while at the same time griping that competitors are persuing similar technology with more capital available. The report also says that the Volt isn't going to be economically viable. That, however, is old news, and we all expect that GM will be selling the cars at a loss at first.

This is the first time that GM has admitted to a possible delay. Conveniently, about six hours after this story hit Autocar, the 230 MPG campaign cracked open, and now if you search for anything about the Volt, that's all you find.

The second piece of bad news is more or less on the same lines. GM previously said that they hoped to sell 60,000 Volt's in their first year of production. That's a big number, but acheivable. As a comparison, Toyota made about 15,000 Priuses in its first year. However, news has just leaked out of GM saying that they are aiming for a much more modest release, starting out with around 300 or 400 Volts in the last months of 2010 before slowly ramping up production and producing 10,000 vehicles before the beginning of 2012.

The promise of 60,000 vehicles would have met demand for the car, 10,000 simply won't. So if you want a Volt in 2011, you'd better be camping outside your dealer's door.

Overall, it seems like it's been a bad week for the Volt. We might have heard some great news in the form of the EPA's probably mileage ratings, but it isn't going to matter if GM is unable or unwilling to meet demand for the car. Let's hope that they can pull it together, meet their deadline, and provide a car that will truly reform General Motors, not just look pretty in the garages of a select few buyers.

Comments (6)

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Not really a problem
written by Max, August 13, 2009

Hank - the disclosures put in federal documents require that they include risk assessments. Missing the deadline is a completely valid risk - it's not an admission of a problem. For comparison, if you read the financial statements (sec.gov) for, say, a sugar company it will include risks around the impact of bad weather or the like. The same is true for the demand picture. Generally speaking, all sales projections are always inaccurate. So it's hardly news to get upset about.

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Thanks, Max...
written by Bob Wallace, August 14, 2009

I agree. There are too many unknowns to get all worked up about the sky falling on Volt.

60K could easily have been marketing hype, putting the best spin possible on the future prospects. 10k could easily be playing it safe in order to avoid shareholder suits if things don't pan out as expected.

My take on the Volt is that it is a very interesting machine. It's an EV with a gen set on board, could easily be a pure EV given better battery technology/price.

I can also see it being somewhat of a market failure. BYD might easily bring a better PHEV to market at the same time or even sooner. They're talking 60+ mile all-electric range, 10 minutes to an 80% charge, and a low/mid $20k price. Volt will hang on to the folks who only buy American, but that's not the overall market.

If BYD doesn't happen, if Volt does as good or better than advertised and there is a significant price drop then GM could rule.

And, certainly, GM could crank up production quickly. They know how to build lots of cars in a short period of time.

Then you've also got to realize that we're coming out of a recession. People who have a perfectly good Toyota, Honda, whatever that gets reasonable gas mileage may hesitate to take on new debt just to save less than a hundred per month on gas.

Time to sit back and see how this all plays out and not get too excited, I think....

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Well made cars will sell.
written by teko, August 14, 2009

As long as the GM Volts is a reliable car, and gets 230MPG as they say... without breaking down too soon like many other cars made in here in the US, then it should be matter of producing more cars.

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We'll see
written by Green Resources, August 14, 2009

I have hope for the Volt and the future of GM but I have a few doubts as well. They need to get in gear and deliver this vehicle instead of excuses.

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Technology Manager
written by Matt Kuehn, August 14, 2009

I don't think the government filings are a significant issue. If you read the 10k/8k's of other companies introducing new technology it will include similar "hedging" type wording. As to BYD, I believe they are more show than go. Their initial sales of the F3DM hybrid have gone very poorly. Also, their quality levels are not up to W. Europe/U.S./Japan market standards.

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Depressing
written by Matthew McDonough, August 15, 2009

This is about the most depressing volt news I have heard yet. I graduate from college in May 2010 and was looking to make the volt my first big purchase (assuming I can find a job). Now I have to hope that I can even find a volt?
Max and Bob, I hope you guys are right. I have no experience or knowledge about these federal disclosures and what you say makes sense...but I still have a bad taste in my mouth from reading this article.
I would love for my first ecofriendly car to be American, and if GM doesnt do this ecorevolution right, I don't see them sticking around much longer.

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