For some reason, with everyone jumping on the electric vehicle bandwagon, it's becoming really interesting to start comparing lithium to oil. Jerry Flint, in Forbes Magazine, just stated his fear that countries with lots of lithium would create their own OPEC, and thus keep the cost of electric vehicles artificially high.
Others fear that the world's lithium supplies will be quickly depleted and we will find ourselves in a whole new mess.
None of this makes any sense. So here are some reasons why we don't need to create a "strategic lithium reserve," and why, actually, the costs of lithium won't be driving up battery prices.
- Lithium is a trivial part of the cost of a lithium-ion battery. The expensive bits par are the mind-bendingly complicated cathodes and anodes that have to be created with extremely complicated chemistry, even nanotechnology. And this is not to mention the active cooling systems that have sent the price of the Volt and the Tesla higher than expected. Every Chevy Volt contains about $180 of lithium. The battery is estimated to cost more than $10,000.
- Lithium is not scarce. Currently Bolivia produces about half of the world's lithium but only because their supply is particularly easy to extract, and thus very cheap. But if Bolivia decided to start using their power to drive up prices, economically viable sources of lithium would be found in nearly every country in the world. At 5x the current price, it would be economically viable to extract lithium from seawater. Hopefully we won't have to worry about running out of seawater.
- Lithium is not used up inside of batteries. While oil is burned by cars, lithium just sits there and, unless the battery is destroyed in a crash, it will be recycled. It won't however, be recycled for economic reasons, because lithium is too cheap to justify the costs. It will be recycled for environmental reasons, but that doesn't mean the recycling companies (see our story on Toxco) won't be feeding the lithium back into the market.
- Once the battery is built, commodity costs cease to matter. With oil, we're all at the mercy of wildly flucuating pump prices. With lithium, on the other hand, you've already got your battery and fuctuating costs of lithium won't affect you until you need a new car (or battery.)
- Advanced batteries use less lithium. The better these batteries get, the less lithium is needed per mile of travel. And as technologies get better and more batteries are made, battery prices will drop much faster than increasing lithium costs ever could.
Lithium is literally nothing like oil. I'd say it's apples to oranges, but at least they're both fruits. It's more like comparing apples to underwear. Lithium prices will go up, but battery prices will drop much faster (and likely use less lithium) due to economies of scale and technological advancements.
In short, lithium supplies are the last thing we should be worrying about.
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written by Carl Hage, August 19, 2009
Good writeup, Hank! You are right on. Every so often the predictions of lithium supply limits from one or two guys get plastered all over the news, but without much critical analysis like your post. One interesting point is newlithium production projects in China, awaiting a rise in demand. It's as if China is guaranteeing supply for the future battery market.
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written by Ivan, August 20, 2009
It's really cool to see they're trying to secure their own Lithium production!
...I was also extremely excited to read here just how much more they are investing in rail, like really cool rail, compared to highways and the like...
go china
(oh, and if there's one thing markets can not do better than states it is to anticipate *e.g. Lithium*)
...I was also extremely excited to read here just how much more they are investing in rail, like really cool rail, compared to highways and the like...
go china
(oh, and if there's one thing markets can not do better than states it is to anticipate *e.g. Lithium*)
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written by Bob Wallace, August 20, 2009
Very good post Hank.
In addition to lithium price/scarcity not being a problem we may see part of the lithium batteries being replaced by ultra capacitors before long.
Ultras are capable of giving out/absorbing large amounts of power quicker than lithium batteries. They will be able to better absorb the power generated in regenerative braking. They are not effected by very cold temperatures so they can give EVs fast acceleration while the lithium batteries are still being heated.
Ultras don't degrade (or only very slightly degrade) with charge/discharge cycles so they can take some c/d pressure off the lithiums, especially in the case of PHEVs.
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/23289/
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written by Doug, August 20, 2009
according to September 2009 National Geographic. Lithium is mined as an ore in rocks and as a mineral suspended in briny solutions found beneath salt flats. in recent years Chile has developed its lithium-rich salt flats to become the world's top producer with rising demand, new deposits will have to be tapped-including an estimated 5.95 million tons beneath a high-altitude desert in Bolivia
Top Producers
1.Chile
2.Australia
3.China
4.Argentina
5.Portugal
6.Canada
7.Zimbabwe
8.Brazil
So your facts seem suspect to me.
Top Producers
1.Chile
2.Australia
3.China
4.Argentina
5.Portugal
6.Canada
7.Zimbabwe
8.Brazil
So your facts seem suspect to me.
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written by Mark, August 20, 2009
Ecogeek is always a good site to find common sense approaches to new technology. I read elsewhere that the material can be extracted from seawater and that it costs little in the battery. Very good article Hank. Of course it won't stop idiots going on Fox News to spew rubbish about EVs or renewable energy.
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written by MD, August 20, 2009
Oh come on now, if you expose the lies how are the commodities speculators going to turn a fast buck.. LOL
Think of their poor children, if they can't rip of John Q public, how will they pay for their Polo lessons!
Think of their poor children, if they can't rip of John Q public, how will they pay for their Polo lessons!
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written by Optimistic Dude, August 20, 2009
Interesting take on the topic, Hank. Should Bolivia partner with another world leader to try to make the most of their natural resource? Would this even be possible considering the opportunity for recycling? http://www.newsy.com/videos/bolivia_s_new_oil
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written by Zachary Alexander, August 20, 2009
Are you telling me that there are no medium or long-term political risks associated with Bolivia? Also are you saying that there are no commercial risks associated with doing business in Bolivia? Finally, what do you think about the potential for expropriation and/or government action?
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written by Bob Wallace, August 20, 2009
Zachary - according to an earlier post there are alternatives to doing business with Bolivia...
Top Producers
1.Chile
2.Australia
3.China
4.Argentina
5.Portugal
6.Canada
7.Zimbabwe
8.Brazil
And seawater. At five times the cost of mined lithium, salt water extracted lithium would add only a few hundred dollars to each vehicle and lithium per vehicle is likely to decrease over time.
I think we need not get our bloomers in a bunch over Bolivian politics.
Top Producers
1.Chile
2.Australia
3.China
4.Argentina
5.Portugal
6.Canada
7.Zimbabwe
8.Brazil
And seawater. At five times the cost of mined lithium, salt water extracted lithium would add only a few hundred dollars to each vehicle and lithium per vehicle is likely to decrease over time.
I think we need not get our bloomers in a bunch over Bolivian politics.
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written by The Author, August 21, 2009
Two things that must be mentioned regarding this article:
First, while it currently 'appears' that there is plenty of lithium, remember the same false assumption was made about oil when it first started to be pumped just over 100 years ago. For decades prospectors, geologists and scientists all said that we had 1000 years worth of oil on the planet. Need I remind everyone we have reached peak oil and the U.S. hit its peak in the 70's
Second, lithium isn't the only component to EV batteries and not necessarily the one to worry about. Rare earth metals are also critical components in EVs and many electronics. These are the materials that are going to be extremely localized geographically and scarce once, or if, EVs take off in the marketplace. Seeing as there is already more demand than supply of some REMs, it's a little scary to see what will happen when EV's actually start selling and being produced in large quantities.
First, while it currently 'appears' that there is plenty of lithium, remember the same false assumption was made about oil when it first started to be pumped just over 100 years ago. For decades prospectors, geologists and scientists all said that we had 1000 years worth of oil on the planet. Need I remind everyone we have reached peak oil and the U.S. hit its peak in the 70's
Second, lithium isn't the only component to EV batteries and not necessarily the one to worry about. Rare earth metals are also critical components in EVs and many electronics. These are the materials that are going to be extremely localized geographically and scarce once, or if, EVs take off in the marketplace. Seeing as there is already more demand than supply of some REMs, it's a little scary to see what will happen when EV's actually start selling and being produced in large quantities.
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written by Bob Wallace, August 21, 2009
Lithium is the 25th most abundant element, present in about the same amount as nickel and lead.
Oil disappears when we burn/use it. Lithium is not used up but can be recycled.
Oil disappears when we burn/use it. Lithium is not used up but can be recycled.
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written by Yaron Vorona, August 21, 2009
Dear readers,
While I enthusiastically agree with Mr. Green's writeup above, I must point out that, aside from potentially a small scale experimental extraction facility under development, Bolivia does not extract any lithium from the deposit in the Salar de Uyuni. Unfortunately, the source is tainted by the presence of impurities and is not currently a good supply.
For information on the breakout of world lithium reserves, have a look at these charts.
http://www.lithiumalliance.org...m-reserves
In terms of production, the current producers are:
# Chile
# Australia
# Argentina
# China
# USA
# Canada
# Portugal
# Serbia
# Zimbabwe
# Brazil
# Finland
Regarding ultracapacitors: Since lithium is the least dense metal, it is very likely that these will be made using lithium. In fact, last year, Maxwell Technologies and the Argonne National Laboratory teamed up to work on making hybrid devices.
Lithium allows us to replace our anti-democratic nation imposed gas tax with a platform on which to run our transportation sector using any electricity producing technology.
And that's a future worth living for.
While I enthusiastically agree with Mr. Green's writeup above, I must point out that, aside from potentially a small scale experimental extraction facility under development, Bolivia does not extract any lithium from the deposit in the Salar de Uyuni. Unfortunately, the source is tainted by the presence of impurities and is not currently a good supply.
For information on the breakout of world lithium reserves, have a look at these charts.
http://www.lithiumalliance.org...m-reserves
In terms of production, the current producers are:
# Chile
# Australia
# Argentina
# China
# USA
# Canada
# Portugal
# Serbia
# Zimbabwe
# Brazil
# Finland
Regarding ultracapacitors: Since lithium is the least dense metal, it is very likely that these will be made using lithium. In fact, last year, Maxwell Technologies and the Argonne National Laboratory teamed up to work on making hybrid devices.
Lithium allows us to replace our anti-democratic nation imposed gas tax with a platform on which to run our transportation sector using any electricity producing technology.
And that's a future worth living for.
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written by Bob Wallace, August 21, 2009
Are you sure about the lithium/ultracapicitor part? IIRC ultras are generally carbon based. There is a carbon/lithium hybrid ultra, but that's atypical.
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written by cheap jordan shoes, August 22, 2009
Cool website, like what I have read. Will definitely be back to read again.
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written by Chuck, August 26, 2009
Are these types of articles vetted by knowledgeable peers? I'll grant that the Lithium cost is low and that it is readily available in many places in the world. Even here in the US. However the environmental impact of the mining is outrageous. One of the lithium mining areas in South America is considered to have the most polluted air in the world.
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written by Todd Edelmane, August 26, 2009
Do we have:
* Water to make all the private cars using lithium?
* Energy and money to build the suburbs enabled by electric cars?
* Energy for these cars, plus the billion + people who ain't go no juice (I will assume you feel you need a private car before those people have any energy)
* Continued explanations for children of the million + people who die on the roads each year?
* Somewhere to put nuclear waste and all the coal carbon?
I don't think so.
From Berlin, carfree with 9 year old computer, one CFL burning and veggie low food chain fish dinner.
* Water to make all the private cars using lithium?
* Energy and money to build the suburbs enabled by electric cars?
* Energy for these cars, plus the billion + people who ain't go no juice (I will assume you feel you need a private car before those people have any energy)
* Continued explanations for children of the million + people who die on the roads each year?
* Somewhere to put nuclear waste and all the coal carbon?
I don't think so.
From Berlin, carfree with 9 year old computer, one CFL burning and veggie low food chain fish dinner.
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written by Bob Wallace, August 26, 2009
* Water to make all the private cars using lithium?
Yes. Not necessarily in places where global climate change is decreasing rain fall such as the US Southwest, but there's plenty of water in the Northwest.
* Energy and money to build the suburbs enabled by electric cars?
Sure. We're going to have to build housing somewhere for all the new people coming on board. We'll probably house the majority of them in urban settings, but those who really want to live outside cites will be able to.
* Energy for these cars, plus the billion + people who ain't go no juice (I will assume you feel you need a private car before those people have any energy)
Sure. We've now got enough renewable energy in our grid mix to be able to say that we can continue to build renewables with nothing but clean energy. We can build out as we replace fossil fuel sources. (And on top of that we can drastically cut our usage via conservation.)
* Continued explanations for children of the million + people who die on the roads each year?
We will have safer cars in the near future. Collision avoidance radar is starting to appear and insurance companies will insist on wide incorporation as it proves out.
More important we worry about smoking induced deaths (5x the rate of vehicle accidents), sexually transmitted infections (3x), alcohol (2x), indoor pollution from solid fuels (2x)....
* Somewhere to put nuclear waste and all the coal carbon?
No and doesn't matter.
We've got no real answer for nuclear waste. That's one of the reasons we need to quit using nuclear. But we probably need to keep using what we have until we get coal shut down.
Coal carbon. It's highly unlikely that we'll go the carbon sequestering route. Capturing and storing the CO2 will drive the price of coal generation up and force coal out of the mix.
From Bridgeville, with a energy sipping netbook powered by PV solar, natural light pouring in my windows, and dinner to be harvested from my organic garden. ;o)
Yes. Not necessarily in places where global climate change is decreasing rain fall such as the US Southwest, but there's plenty of water in the Northwest.
* Energy and money to build the suburbs enabled by electric cars?
Sure. We're going to have to build housing somewhere for all the new people coming on board. We'll probably house the majority of them in urban settings, but those who really want to live outside cites will be able to.
* Energy for these cars, plus the billion + people who ain't go no juice (I will assume you feel you need a private car before those people have any energy)
Sure. We've now got enough renewable energy in our grid mix to be able to say that we can continue to build renewables with nothing but clean energy. We can build out as we replace fossil fuel sources. (And on top of that we can drastically cut our usage via conservation.)
* Continued explanations for children of the million + people who die on the roads each year?
We will have safer cars in the near future. Collision avoidance radar is starting to appear and insurance companies will insist on wide incorporation as it proves out.
More important we worry about smoking induced deaths (5x the rate of vehicle accidents), sexually transmitted infections (3x), alcohol (2x), indoor pollution from solid fuels (2x)....
* Somewhere to put nuclear waste and all the coal carbon?
No and doesn't matter.
We've got no real answer for nuclear waste. That's one of the reasons we need to quit using nuclear. But we probably need to keep using what we have until we get coal shut down.
Coal carbon. It's highly unlikely that we'll go the carbon sequestering route. Capturing and storing the CO2 will drive the price of coal generation up and force coal out of the mix.
From Bridgeville, with a energy sipping netbook powered by PV solar, natural light pouring in my windows, and dinner to be harvested from my organic garden. ;o)
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written by Kyllein MacKellerann, August 27, 2009
While Lithium is the current "go-to" for energy storage(think energy, not electricity), there are certainly other elements that can also be employed. The main reason lithium is used now is because we know how to use it(duh).
Why not aluminum, or other metals (or even organics) as a storage medium? We are actively looking now, and even if lithium what's currently in use, we need to keep exploring for an easier to use, easier to make, and less support-demanding energy storage material.
Today, lithuim. Tomorrow...charcoal? (carbon).
Why not aluminum, or other metals (or even organics) as a storage medium? We are actively looking now, and even if lithium what's currently in use, we need to keep exploring for an easier to use, easier to make, and less support-demanding energy storage material.
Today, lithuim. Tomorrow...charcoal? (carbon).
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written by Cedric, September 03, 2009
One thing to add I think is the fact that in Bolivia lithium reserves are in a very beautiful natural reserve and protected area (under the salt deserts).
It is a dilemna to damage this unique part of the world and marvel of nature.
It is a dilemna to damage this unique part of the world and marvel of nature.
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written by Tracy, October 13, 2009
Although it's obvious that lithium battery powered vehicles isn't a perfect solution for the current problems we're facing with alternative fuel sources to lessen our dependency on foreign oil, it's definitely a step in the right direction.
Destroying of natural landscapes to extract lithium will definitely become a negative byproduct of massive electric vehicle adoption, but I have faith that with the pressing nature of the climate crisis the great minds behind green technology will be thinking 3 steps ahead of the game to avoid future conundrums such as the one we're experiencing now with big oil.
Destroying of natural landscapes to extract lithium will definitely become a negative byproduct of massive electric vehicle adoption, but I have faith that with the pressing nature of the climate crisis the great minds behind green technology will be thinking 3 steps ahead of the game to avoid future conundrums such as the one we're experiencing now with big oil.
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