MAY 21

What the model can never predict, is scientific discoveries which will mitigate or reverse these issues. In the 1800's people talked about mass starvation by the end of the century due to over-population. They could not predict mechanized farming, chemical fertilizers, and other discoveries.

Instead of all this doom and gloom from the ecofundamentalists who have utopian visions of humanity returning to a peasant lifestyle, we need to explore green options and invest in massive research so we can have our cake and eat it too.

Despair is a mortal sin because it denies the possibility that history can surprise us with something good.

Yes, plan for good ecology, but No don't buy the chicken little ecofundamentialist propaganda.

i welcome the ecofundamentalist propaganda. Id rather breathe in cleaner air than have my kids born into something I mindlessly caused. id rather have cheaper cleaner fuel to power my electronics, id rather we get rid of plastics which pollute our planet. it doesnt take a genius to know we should better ourselves.

Yes we should continue to promote as many eco-friendly solutions as possible, especially the ones that are economically sound. But the Earth is not going to come to an end if we do not. Global warming will be mitigated by negative feedback, as has happened throughout history. Worse case scenario is that we kill a lot of wildlife, and flood a few coastal cities.

It is a model based on the assumption that that the current warming trend is due to the anthropogenic release of CO2, and it extrapolates the heating in correlation with increasing CO2 levels. The false logic of this is that the data is made to fit a model that is unsound in principal. Global warming is a factor that we will experience regardless of miniscule anthropogenic CO2 increases.
These increases are completely impropable, if the temperate of the earth was anywhere near these numbers the increase in surface area of clouds would reflect so much radiation from the sun that rapid cooling would occur thus re-instigating a balance of climate.
Being a good citizen, involves deriving your own conclusions based on independant and multiple scientific studies and not blindly following the sheep.

So, what have we seen in responses so far? New scientific discoveries could magically come to our aid. Something to do with clouds might help (sorry, no, the science does not agree). There will be negative feedback as in the past.

Sorry, but negative feedback, when it happens, can take a long time. It will be on a timescale of millenia, not the decades necessary. Also, sometimes it just doesn't happen. One possibility for the biggest extinction in the history of our planet - the Permian - was a "mere" 5C average rise in temperature that led to a positive feedback mechanism.

It may be comforting to try and hand-wave this problem away, but in the real world, we need action.

@Ken, true (in theory at least). Shame that due to the long life cycle of Carbon in the atmosphere the negative feedback will take over a thousand years.

@James - I wouldn't say that well thought out, consensus driven science is "Chicken Little" stuff; I agree that science and technology may help solve the problem and that many environmental organizations do espouse ideas that are radically different than the lifestyle we live today is; but that's not necessarily a bad thing. There are too many people on Earth right now to be properly supported (and GMO will not solve that, nor do I want such tinkering with my food) and our population must be brought down, through natural methods (like asking people to have one less child than they were planning too).
@Ken - the world may not come to an end; but as Paul notes, the feedback loop will you envision will take much longer to resolve things than simply waiting for the year 2100 to show up.

Computer rendered models cant even get the 4 day forecast correct, let alone, a yearly warming trend. This is a scare tactic, to get people to buy in to commercial green solutions.

The year we can develop a computer great enough to forecast global change, will be a year that does not exist.

on a side note, the importance of taking care of the earth is great, but don't let the scare tactics get you down.

Is the assertion that human activities, rather than the Earth's own cyclical changes, are causing some future disaster a symptom of modern people's vanity? A new religion that claims that we each can control the world when we put out our daily trash?

Sorry I see that I mistakenly thought 'title' meant my own title, not of the article! Silly me!

So Edward Lorenz dies and a month later his discoveries apparently no longer apply. Makes perfect sense...consider me completely convinced.

"There are too many people on Earth right now to be properly supported " -- That is Hogwash! Although population is expected by the UN to level off at 9 billion so I don't think population is that much of a problem.

I've always wondered by two of the biggest and least populated, and polar countries (canada and russia) went to kyoto and oppose global warming, I've been to canada, there's snow in the summer! and hardly anyone around! I assume the same for Russia. But I digress on population or warming.


There is plenty of energy for the taking (big fat fusion reactor called the sun... also known as the big yellow thing), plenty of suburban lawns/fallow fields, woods, possible Vertical Farms. Plus tremendous 'gains' can occur in energy by mass efficiency (LED lightbulbs). We can have clean air and Ipods and cars, it just take brain power and people allowing free markets, (and high prices of bad polluting stuff)

Seems like alot of people think that this is a mere scare tactic employed by scientists. It is true that computer models are not that accurate but we can't deny that mother earth is behaving strangely nowadays. Gaia hypothesis coming true? I live just 1 degree north of the equator and it is really really unbearably hot recently. This is certainly not the case in the past.

Its alright, whatever the majority of scientists may say. Continue living your decadently wasteful life-styles. Its OK. Who needs this many people on Earth anyways? If we mess this up, we can always start over from scratch or at least make the necessary changes later. The fossil fuels in the ground will not run out. There is always more. It is certain that we will find a not yet discovered miraculous energy source soon. And, there are always intelligent extraterrestrials who will help us one day to get us out of trouble. Or we just leave Earth and find another planet. Tons of options if you keep a gaping open mind. Taking risks is what we do, especially with other life forms or people. In the meantime, full speed forward through the fog!

Duuuuuh!

Not.

Karsten
--
http://www.polluteless.com
Practical Advice to Pollute Less

Ken said: "Worse case scenario is that we kill a lot of wildlife"

I hate to be the one to break this to you Ken, but you are wildlife. We are wildlife.

We are also probably some of the most efficient & effective targets for a little 'negative feedback' as you put it.

Higher prices for bad polluting stuff haven't and wont come from free market economics, at least not as it _has been structured_ in recent history. The Kyoto Protocol was a first attempt to restructure the marketplace so that 'bad polluting people' have to pay for at least some of the cost of their 'bad polluting ways' instead of just writing their damage to their surroundings off as an externality.

Also, WHY do the scientists think the population will 'level off' at 9 Billion bob? WHY bob WHY! Have a little think about what that means, given current exponential growth. Biology? Evolution? Ecosystems? What causes this 'levelling off'? Scarier still: What if we don't 'level off'? What if Billions of people don't 'level off'? What then?

I wonder about the level of education and the reasoning of some of you people. Your naive comments and delusional self-soothing is in large part why I truly fear for the future. Too much of humanity is just ignorant, and yet confident enough to spout off about things you really know nothing about as if they are fact. Soon enough I expect you´ll rue your ignorance, however it´s more likely you´ll find some other lame manner of deflecting responsibility.

The best scientific evidence is that climate change is happening, and fast. We also have archaeological evidence that in the past climate change was responsible for a) mass extinctions b) a major factor in societal collapse (see Tainter, the Collapse of Complex Societies, Diamond, Collapse).

On top of that we are facing depletion of major resources, particularly oil. This does not bode well for a world where at most 2 billion people could be supported without fossil fuels for agriculture. What happens to the other 7 Bn people? Sounds rather grim.

I don't think we should be playing Russian Roulette with our one and only atmosphere.

A peak oil saying is: Deal with reality, before reality deals with you.

That was fascinating, and frightening. Thanks for sharing that, Hank.
DFTBA

if people would be as wishy-washy about it if the real issue was brought to the forefront.

The planet doesn't need saving, it's not going anywhere, life will continue on no matter what we do. Pollute or not, put our head in the sand and hope that in the future some technological break through will clean up the mess we've made or work today towards not making the mess in the first place. Either way, whatever choice you make life on the Earth will continue. The Earth doesn't need saving, what we are really trying to save, is the Human Race.

If we do not change the way we live, we will need to put us on the Endangered Species list. Our habitat will be lost, and we will need to evolve or die out. And with such rapid lost of habitat I doubt evolution is an option.

Why all the "we" talk when the focus on the big picture reveals more than just a possible summer vacation in the arctic ocean. Mass extinctions and habitat polution now contend with global warming as a truly immediate threat to the survival of all earth's species. Fighting global warming is the first battle in a global war to save the entire planet from modern human "civilization".

Does Ken not realize that the 10s of millions of people living on the coast would have to relocate? They are going to move into your town and compete for your friend's jobs.

Scott Fitz, I believe you do not know the amount of human contribution to CO2 and your lexicon seems at best farcical. Why will the amount of clouds increase directly proportional with the average climate temperature?

Is that your own conclusion based on no scientific evidence? It is important to decide things for yourself but to invent physical processes seems Godly.

And who is the shepherd? Not the one claiming "business as usual" who would like things to remain stagnant?

Why all the "we" talk, you ask? Well, I agree with you that it is better (ethically speaking) to be focused on the bigger picture of all that is already being affected, but face it: it's all politics.

Some of us may be trying to save more than just ourselves, but the only way to get the others to join us is to make them believe that they are affected, too. And how better to do that than to make the argument that those most affected are ourselves? We are a narcissistic bunch; if it affects something I'm only remotely associated with (which is likely how most [Americans] view their environment, food sources, etc.), I might perk up an ear to a green argument. If it affects
me and only me, I'm far more likely to take action.

I'm a psychologist by training, and I think this would fall nicely into some theories of persuasion. Sounds like a study I might want to run. ;)

Switch to LED lighting especially while building Houses.

Roof your homes with NANOSOLAR's new tech that's in production now.

Support a push for Plasma reactors. They are the best bet for landfill reduction since they use anything to create electricity.

MRF is the oil companies future!

GLOBAL WARMING HAD BEEN AROUND FOR MILLIONS OF YEARS AND ONCE 1 PERSON STARTED TALKING ABOUT IT ITS ALL THE SUDDEN SUCH A BIG DEAL. obveously if something was going to happen its going to haoppen over time we are capable of produceing equipment ect. to catch up with those problems i dont know why all these people have the panty's in a bunch over that shit even with the myan callender lol that was there religion not ours theres many of diff religions out there the earth will not end 2012 lol u dont here any one talking aobut it and if it was you would here about it on the news and the world news there is nothing on there about something happening these days and Aristotle no his facts are bunk B.S. lol if i lived way back in the day and said that something was going to happen in the future believe me it would something close to it or something of the same sort cuss it happend over time there was thousands of years for something to happen lol come on now life is life live it to the fullest we are the u.s and and shit gonna stop it holla at me im out

i think that the scientists are going to make panik on peoples. I beleve in God.

Winter 2008 location New York temperature 78 degrees panic co-workers "Its Global Warming"!!!

Date check history 1982 record high temperature 72*
Date check history 1967 record high temperature 86*

It's not Global warming it is simply the nature of the beast that is mother earth.

Once the world accepts the simple truth, that the Earth is better off without humans and that we are have become a hopeless plague onto ourselves and the planet, we will no longer cling to an egotistical response in believing that we will eventually change our nature and begin to live responsibly and in accordance with nature. I have little belief that this can happen.
My only hope is that the truth will one day be common knowledge as it is great comedy that the whole of humanity was self-obliterated by just two anomolies that were never properly examined due to their extreme wealth, power, and secrecy. These corrupted forces that whippped and lulled us into supporting their own incomprehensible wealth, with our own hard work, our commitment, our faith, our families and our lives. So what are the two entities, these two turning points of history in the tradegy of this failure?

#1) God was created in mans' image by MAN to serve MAN. This created a class of nobility and clergy, the first government which had a "divine" right to rulership. Blind faith is the end of the pursuit of knowledge and the beginning of mind control.

#2) Fossil fuel industries have a stranglehold on production so also control over most economies and so governments. Whereas alternative fuels can be cheaply and easily produced by smaller nations and even individuals. "Big Oil" will not allow this "genie" of alternative fuels out of the bottle until they are done selling all the world's oil to the very last drop where it will be of highest value.

So I blame god and gas? NO.

I blame people for being loud, corrupted, controlled, ignorant, stupid, lazy, abusive, cheating, lying, idealists in denial.

There is a deep underlying flaw in all of humanity and if you don't like this then you can suck a fat one. See?

Once the world accepts the simple truth, that the Earth is better off without humans and that we are have become a hopeless plague onto ourselves and the planet, we will no longer cling to an egotistical response in believing that we will eventually change our nature and begin to live responsibly and in accordance with nature.

History might say that our world was self-obliterated by the infiltration of just two anomolies that were never properly examined due to their extreme wealth, power, and secrecy. Both, together evolved into the modern power structure that ruled the days of the ending. These corrupted forces that whippped and lulled us into supporting their own incomprehensible wealth, with our own hard work, our commitment, our faith, our families and our lives. So what were these two entities, these two turning points of history in the tradegy, the comedy of this failure?

1) Fossil fuel industries have a stranglehold on production so also control over most economies and so governments. Whereas alternative fuels can be cheaply and easily produced by smaller nations and even individuals. "Big Oil" will not allow this "genie" of alternative fuels out of the bottle until they are done selling all the world's oil to the very last drop where it will be of highest value.

2) God was created in mans' image by MAN to serve MAN. This created a class of nobility and clergy, the first government which had a "divine" right to rulership. Blind faith is the end of the pursuit of knowledge and the beginning of mind control.

So I blame god and gas? No.

I blame people. For being loud, corrupted, controlled, ignorant, stupid, lazy, abusive, cheating, lying, apathetic, idealists in denial.
Ask yourself, through all this, is humanity as a whole changing their perspective and their potential? Or are they just trying to further themselves as individuals only for more and longer lasting sensations? The late/great comedian, George Carlin said that the world is like a sample of fecal excretion and it's being flushed down the toilet and asks why anybody would try to stop it from happening only to preseve the stink. I agree.