MAY 20

I do not think that the failures of Green Fuel and Pelamis constitute proof that algal fuel or wave power will not be part of our energy portfolio in the long term. One could argue that these failures decrease the probability that these technologies will contribute to CO2 emissions reduction in the short term, but in fact that probability was already low. Technogy maturation curves are long. Wind power is a well established renewable energy source with many manufacturers and well known costs, and even after several decades of major commercial installations wind energy constitutes only a small fraction of global energy consumption.

The only effective short term action to combat global warming (not to mention mitigating the economic effects of resource depletion) is for the OECD nations to reduce their total level of economic activity. This is the real incovenient truth which both Al Gore and technology fairy websites such as Ecogeek are ignoring. This not to say that I think that we should abandon the scientific and technological enterprise, but we should be utilizing our smarts to provide basic goods and services (i.e. food, shelter, clothing, education, medical care) with low levels of resource consumption rather than trying to increase the size of our pile of toys forever.

If we want our economic system to exhibit ecological intelligence then such intelligence much be must be part of our primary institutional structure rather than being subordinated to the goal of selling more stuff this year than we did last year. The hope of making all of our economic stuff 'green' so that we can pursue more stock market growth forever is pipe dream. I know that no one wants to hear this 'commie nonesense' any more than a cancer patient wants to hear that he or she has to undergo a long treatment of chemotherapy. However, facts are facts, and they do not become false simply because they imply a different future than the one we have dreamed about.

Hi,

Saul Griffith estimated the entire global tidal potential at 3.5 TW, which may sound like a lot, but is actually pretty low compared to other sources (he estimated global geothermal capacity, for example at 32 TW). So is wave power really worth the effort?

Wave power is capturing energy from waves. Tidal energy is capturing energy from the tides which is different.

@Mitch

Good call.

Wave resources are estimated even lower, at 2 TW
http://www.wave-energy.net/Library/An Overview of Wave Energy.pdf

I think that Roger, by expecting the capitalist economies of the planet to evolve into a slow-growth model is naive and unrealistic. That's like expecting Olympic athletes to not work at beating existing records (or using less-than-legal means to achieve this). It just isn't what many humans expect ....

I think that there is no one save-all energy source for human civilization, other than the sun, which is ultimately the source of all energy on earth. We need to utilize all possible sources and wave+tidal+hydro+solar+wind+biomass+... all will play a part. You will notice that I did not explicitly include nuclear as I personally hope not to see nuclear in the mix. Nuclear is tha act of replacing one evil (CO2 and other GH gas emissions) with a MUCH greater evil, radioactive waste. We managed to increase atmospheric CO2 high enough for environmental change in 150 years. We can reduce this level again with a very concerted effort in a much shorter period (if we really wanted to). Nuclear waste is a problem that will be with us for 1000's of years with no possibility of reversal. (Depletion reactors do a good job, it's just a bit dangerous from a terrorism perspective... again, it's just human.)

We have not put a price on carbon (and GHGs). The critical thing to realize is that we must put a price on carbon (and other GHG's). This will make non-carbon (non-GHG) producing technologies workable. As it is, oil and gas are artificially low, considering the effects on the global climate. We need to attach a cost to these issues. When we do that properly other technologies will move forward.

Why all the nay-saying and FUD? Did I misread the article, or do they really believe that all the wave power on Earth, with an energy density many times greater than wind power, totals less than 2 TW? These low numbers must reflect our inability to harvest ocean energy rather than an actual lack of ocean energy. I've heard estimates that 0.2% of all the ocean's energy (tidal, thermal, wave, etc.) would power the whole globe.

I think that Roger, by expecting the capitalist economies of the planet to evolve into a slow-growth model is naive and unrealistic. That's like expecting Olympic athletes to not work at beating existing records (or using less-than-legal means to achieve this). It just isn't what many humans expect ....

It does not really matter what human beings who are inspelled by the world's dominant cultural mythology expect. The Romans did not expect their empire to be overun by barbarians. Native Americans and native Australians did not expect their way of life to be destroyed within a few generations. The European aristocracy did not expect to surrender the political and economic power that they had wielded for centuries. But guess what? Reality had some surprises in store.

Growth based private finance capitalism is not going to rule the world forever. As far as I am concerned this claim is a statment of objective fact and has nothing to do with political ideology. It does not matter if you are a full blown Marxist who believes that dialectical materialism is the ultimate revelation of the universe's inner workings, or if you are a right wing libertarian who believes that anyone who shows up at a government agency asking for a handout should be taken out and shot as a public nuisance. You still cannot turn off the law of gravity. You cannot travel faster than the speed of light. Our economic output cannot grow forever.

Of course, you can always hope that it can grow for X decades longer where X is greater than the length of your life, so that you will not be personally inconvienced by the transition to a new paradigm. In my selfish moments I hope for such an outcome myself. But in public discussions about our long term destiny I opt for ecological common sense. The fact that such common sense appears to be 'naive and unrealistic' is testimony to the fundamental structural insanity of the dominant cultural paradigm.

What about geothermal? It would be quite a stretch to say that geothermal comes from the sun.

"Nuclear waste is a problem that will be with us for 1000's of years with no possibility of reversal."
your not a scientist are you.
this too will one day be solved in well under eve 1 thousand years. until then i too am not a proponent of nuclear.
remember that finding oil (texas tea) in one's field was once not so very long ago a huge curse.

They may have been the largest, but they certainly were not the only wave generation company out there. (example: http://www.finavera.com/en/wavetech/configuration )

Last I heard Finavera had a project to install generators off the coast of Washington State. While it was a modest proving station it is an example that the failure of one business is not the failure of an entire emerging industry.

:(

See: http://www.finavera.com/files/2009-01-06 Finavera Renewables FERC permits.pdf

Vancouver, Canada, February 6th, 2009 – Finavera Renewables Inc. (‘Finavera Renewables’ or the ‘Company’) (TSX-V: FVR) announces it has filed applications to surrender its Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (“FERC”) license for the Makah Bay Wave Energy Pilot Project in Washington and the Humboldt County Preliminary Permit for a proposed wave energy project in California. The decision allows the Company to focus its resources on enhancing its near-term wind project portfolio and provide shareholders with a clearer path to revenue in this challenging economic environment. The Company retains all Intellectual Property associated with the AquaBuOY technology and is actively seeking financial and technical partners for the future development of the technology.

The turkey shoot of the steel Nessie was only a nmatter of time it seemed to me. While Pelamis fired the imagination, it did not appear, to me at least, to be a likely success.

The more prosaic power buoys are making fine progress while SeaDog, that uses wave power to pump sea water onshore, is a far simpler and maybe more promising development.

JMO.

Best, Terry

Stop battering Roger about the face and head. The economic phase of growth for growth's sake, is a bulwark to energy potential as it drives not the least intensity to generating real power for consumption. Rather it pulls the horse forward from the backside, which is an unusually ineffective position as before long the horse (economics) gets that the gain is less than the energy expended and gives up.

Take the lead Roger, you have my positive energy.

Roger said, "Growth based private finance capitalism is not going to rule the world forever."

That is probably (and unfortunately) correct. Looking at history, by far the most dominate form of governance is dictatorship of some kind. Past democracies have failed when their citizens became unable or unwilling to hold back the power mongers. Don't kid yourself into thinking that this time it will be different. In my opinion, many of the power mongers for the "new paradigm" are using the environmental movement to get there. Just look at the dictatorial policies they want to use to force everyone to comply, and you'll see that for yourself.

Also, the rest of your argument amounts to purposefully causing an economic decline now to avoid economic difficulties later. That only makes sense if you believe that prosperity is inherently evil and that poverty (or at least a significantly lower standard of living) is thus morally preferable, regardless of the ecological consequences of either prosperity or poverty. Otherwise, you would hope for continued prosperity along with fewer ecological consequences, instead of an end to our prosperity.

Pelamis is not in financial trouble - but the Australian investment bank that owned the project and who Pelamis sold machines is in trouble (due to their $3 billion of debt rather than anything to do with the $8m project). If you look at their website Pelamis have recently secured an order with one of the major European utilities to build their second generation machine and appear to be doing fine.

"Also, the rest of your argument amounts to purposefully causing an economic decline now to avoid economic difficulties later. That only makes sense if you believe that prosperity is inherently evil and that poverty (or at least a significantly lower standard of living) is thus morally preferable, regardless of the ecological consequences of either prosperity or poverty."

I do not believe that properity is inherently evil. I belive that living with your means is physically necessary. Considering that species extinction rates have risen to 1000 times their prehuman levels and that there are five billion or so people who currently comsume resources at only a fraction of the rate of the OECD countries, I think that substantial reasons exist to believe that we are living beyond our means. If you have any evidence to the contrary please present it.

Nothing we can do will stop the rising price of oil! Demand from Asia is steady and rising! Americans still totally dependent and as addicted as ever! Fewer and fewer, smaller and smaller fields found! Deeper and deeper we go! to the point of impracticality, unpumpability! The big fields are now on the down side of the curve! Fission's wastes still threaten all mankind, fusion, but a spark in the dark, Cold fusion even colder than before, so look to the only possible power sources! Solar, brighter than ever, and still perpetual, as Wind, Wave, Tidal, Hydro, and geo-thermal are! We have nowhere else to go! Algae for bio-diesel will not die, just morph as it is manipulated in market places, mostly out of fear, mostly indirectly, mostly by Exxon, who refuse diesel development for Americans to this day; to surface as Americans get hard up for fuel and ignore the dying petroleum giants, bio-mass not practical, a matter of scale, if everything that grew in a whole year was turned into ethanol, Americans could burn it in a matter of days in their inefficient gasoline centered low compression spark engines, I see an astounding social paradigm shift for Americans on the near horizons, I see OPEC and Saudis lost in the deserts, Their American dollar hoards dwindling to zero value in world marketplaces, and oil drying up fast. Catastrophe buffered by alternate power supplies, and life-style changes shocking even the well-to-do! Even the best military in the world, cannot force a dry well to give oil! This will be a lesson to the Americans, who still waste oil like it was forever! The smaller failures listed in this article are but the teeth on a saw, not the general slope for these industries! Oil was up $4.00 bbl today, on an ever-increasing sawtooth ascending to highs we can only guess, with the dollar in free-fall! There are no new big oil fields to discover, satellite surveys by the Americans prove that as fact! The market shows weakness as the trillions in loans lose effect,and the Greater Depression rears its ugly head and threatens us all! Beware, the "Forth Turning" and the opening plays of the Age of Aquarius, approaching on Americas horizons in ominous dark clouds of doubt and fear, and remember: the folks in the former U.S.S.R. still can't see what hit them and their Empire, nor can we! It is perhaps beyond the scope of human understanding, to which some pray, lies the truth, but not for us to know for now! Empires come, Empires go! It is the way of the world! Solar and the other natural powers may save a reminent of what we once were, and a small portion of our population, and our record of existance on earth will still only be a few pyramids, even after the worst holocaust, and we cannot escape to Mars! Good bye America and Godspeed! May your Solar mirrors light the universe with your ingenuity! Ride on fourth horse! Ride on.