
Solar photovoltaics have their challenges, from shortages of silicon to the sheer cost of purchasing and installing solar panels, but a new report from the Prometheus Institute says that both these problems will be addressed over the next few years, leading to cheaper solar and an abundance of capacity to produce.
Based on their research, Travis Bradford, president of the Institute, says that prices for traditional silicon-based panels should fall from $3.66 per watt (2007 figures) to $2.14 per watt in 2010, and more impressively, thin-film PV should go to $1.81 per watt from $2.96. When coal, currently the least expensive source of power, is around $2.10 per watt to generate*, the expected drop in price for solar will make it far more competitive.
Any news that solar is becoming more affordable is great as it will encourage more individuals to install them at home, and businesses to do likewise, either to offset their electricity consumption or installing them in a for-profit initiative. The report, however, also highlights an interesting figure - and companies who are currently building silicon-producing facilities that will come online in the next couple of years, should pay attention: The current global production capacity for silicon and thin-film panels is around 3.14 gigawatts, but will hit 12.36 gigawatts in 2010. That's an increase of just under 400%, an enormous amount that is sure to be welcomed by the environmental community.The demand, however, is only expected to be 6.76 gigawatts, up from 2.94 gigawatts in 2007, leaving over 5 gigawatts of unused capacity. Hopefully this will drive prices further down, resulting in greater demand, but this may have already been reflected in the statistics.
The reason for the drop in prices is due to the expected hike in silicon production, a shortage of which is currently being felt. It is expected that silicon availability will quadruple to 125,302 tons by 2012, providing a massive oversupply of the material to the industry. Thin-film manufacturers who use no silicon will not be affected by this overabundance, however they will have to compete with the dropping prices of conventional panels, hence the drop in price.
It may also, though this is probably wishful thinking, push governments to start offering more incentives to those who install solar in a bid to use up the remaining capacity and financially support their manufacturers who by this point will be a very large industry, employing tens of thousands of people.
Via Greentech Media.
Photo via planetrelations
*edited for correction

written by Martin Smith, June 04, 2008
All good news. I have just bought a new place and had a plan to put PVs on the roof, but I might hang back, stick with solar thermals for now, then install the PVs in a few years.
written by Martin Smith, June 04, 2008
written by Brian, June 04, 2008
written by Kent Ragen, June 04, 2008
www.ecounit.com
written by Jason Fremont, June 05, 2008
http://www.FireMe.To/Udi
written by Confused, June 05, 2008
written by Nicholas Gledhill, June 05, 2008
But, what do you mean when you quote demand figures, specifically for solar power? Surely there is a demand for power, in general, of which some is supplied by solar. Or perhaps you mean enough panels to produce "6.76 gigawatts" of power... in which case, wouldn't supply outstripping demand by that much lead to short-term collapse in production - simply lead producers to stop producing and find another use for their silicon... Booms (and busts) are never as a good as sustainable growth, even in green technology markets.
Anyway, whatever it means specifically - no one can disagree that an oversupply of solar panels (and growing demand) is better than an under-supply - a good thing in the long-run, even if it did produce some oddities in the market in the short-term.
written by not confused, June 05, 2008
a kilowatt is the amount of energy produced at a given instant, or a power plant's or solar panel capacity to produce power. What you get billed for is an amount of energy delivered over time, hence kilowatt hours.
written by not confused more, June 05, 2008
If I buy a solar panel that can produce up to 200w of power and it costs me $700 to buy that panel, my cost is $3.50 per watt.
If you use your computer for an hour and it uses 200w then you used 200w per hour. Where I live it costs me $0.15 per kwh. So 200w for an hour would cost me $0.03.
The problem is that if I collect electricity from that panel for an average of 6 hours a day, everyday, I could only sell that power for $0.18 a day. That's $65.70 a year in a perfect scenario. That would take me 10 1/2 years to pay off that panel, in a perfect scenario. A more realistic time frame would be around 25 years.
We're getting there.
written by Knota Moreon, June 05, 2008
Thare's no "a" in c-o-m-p-e-t-i-t-i-v-e.
written by Un-confused, June 05, 2008
Its important to remember that you are comparing an electric service to an electric generator. They are not the same thing. Solar panels are not fuel that gets used up, and you do NOT need to actually buy 121 KW of panels!!
There are aprox 720 hours in a 30 day month, so at 121 KW/h per month, you average about 168 watts at any point during the month. Thats about $360 worth of solar panel at silicon based prices ($2.14 forecast for 2010).
Of couse, its not that simple. What you really need is enough to cover your PEAK usage, which your monthly usage number does not tell us. Its likely at least 1.5 - 2KW however. This is due to the fact that an AC/fridge/computer/TV/etc... all running at the same time on a summer day would be sucking a ton of juice, yet throughout much of the night, those appliances would be using much less power, not to mention lights off, etc. While you are at work too.
The first step to making solar power worth it is efficiency. You should be able to get by with 2KW of panels easily if you make your home efficient enough. Most people waste massive amounts of electricity unnecessarily. At 2000 watts of panels, you are looking at $4,280. Add to that installation costs and additional equipment (inverter, etc). Wild guess: $6000 - $8000 or so. Maybe as much as $10k depending on your needs and situation, maybe as little as $5k if you are a super do-it-yourselfer and swing a shrewd deal on the panels.
Just some thoughts and numbers to flesh out the conversation a bit.
written by Un-confused, June 05, 2008
written by Ricardo, June 05, 2008
May want to work on that for a more professional site.
written by jeebus, June 05, 2008
written by Paul, June 05, 2008
Get these products on the shelves now, or stop the BS.
written by Anonymous, June 05, 2008
written by Idrinkyourmilkshake, June 05, 2008
PV folks are telling me that prices - at least near term are rising.
What happens when the Chinese and Indians suddenly want to buy PV cells. That "oversupply" of silicon might still be "not enough"
Storage not efficiency is the big drawback of solar PV systems. Once the sun goes down you are dead in the water without a massive battery system. Grid-tied systems are great so long as the rest of the population doesnt catch on. A 2KW system should be adequate for most single family dwellings, but youll need to store at least 10kWhrs of juice to make it through a typical winter evening (without significantly changing your liefstyle). Thats 833 amp hours from a 12v battery, or between 15 and 20 car batterys going from full to empty every day.
Its easy to see that you probably wont be using a tumble dryer, the electric oven, a dishwasher, electric hot water heater and still have energy to run the fridge/freezer, lights, TV and parasitics.
PV technology is very promising, but in almost every case of new, renewable energy technology - conservation and lifestyle changes will play an equally significant role.
written by Will, June 05, 2008
written by Dave, June 05, 2008
As to installing for peak use, that is great if your goal is go off grid totally. That is impractical for most and primarily for those who hate the current distribution system providers. Supplementing the existing system with offline and renewables in small steps will allow you to add on as the costs go down. You are not helping the world so much if you max out your credit cards to go solar and you also lead to the above noted boom bust cycles that have slowed development so much.
written by Jeff, June 06, 2008
It's not real until we can buy it!!!
Surely I'm not the only one who's tired of these grossly premature stories!
written by Cubicle Dropout, June 06, 2008
written by dariusf, June 06, 2008
written by Gary McLeod, June 09, 2008
written by Eddy, June 11, 2008
Boy Oh Boy, you Yanks never cease to amaze me. Of course these are the same Local Govts that also forbid you, from hanging out your washing to dry, thus reducing the demand on fossil fuel consumption ? ;) AND at the same time, bleat about reducing the carbon emmissions. And who elects these minor local officials in the first place, allowing them to implement such crap ? Excuse me Folks, but have I got something wrong here with my understanding of these issues ?
One poster gave us a pretty good run up on the power draw he has with his home, appliances that he's definately going to have to re-assess in the very near future.
If all Americans, are so enamoured of their home appliances as he is, Folks your looking serious problems in the face, maybe it's well past the time where you all become a little more sustainable and ditch many of those appliances ?
After all, do you really need that auto capacino maker ?
written by Sterling, June 14, 2008
written by Ciceroji, July 05, 2008
However in the past there was little interest in solar power, no subsidies and very little venture money. Therefore the speed at which costs are lowered will accelerate it is simple, kinda like Moores law. The people who have been hearing solar panels will become cost effective for a while must have been lied to for a while and were just too lazy to check and find out what that would take. They would have realized from historical trends that is unlikely. However we are getting very close to the point where conservatively based on historical trends it is increasigly likely.
An interesting article with that point can be found here:
http://entropyproduction.blogspot.com/2007/05/glittering-future-of-solar-power.html
written by Rex, July 16, 2008
We do turn-key installations all across the nation.
Texas Solar Power Company, Since 1995.
www.txspc.com
written by jim, July 20, 2008
written by Pomaikai, August 01, 2008
written by Luis Cruz, October 03, 2008
written by Kamran, October 11, 2008
written by GRADE EIGHT PUPIL..., October 26, 2008
written by Jon, October 26, 2008
AVA is among a dozen or so companies chasing a market for cheap solar energy, driving product costs down to the $1-per-watt measure, making it nearly competitive with traditional, fossil-fuel-based energy sources.
The process involves depositing a chemical compound called cadmium telluride on ordinary sheet glass, rather than using expensive crystalline silicon like the material used in computer chips.
While the technology is not unique, AVA Solar's production methods are, and those are the patents that the company relies on to ensure its market position. Company president and CEO Pascal Noronha and his staff are pursuing a system where multiple, high-speed, automated production lines can mass-produce the solar panels at a rate that surpasses what competitors can deliver.
written by Falstaff, December 02, 2008
http://www.solarbuzz.com/SolarIndices.htm
written by Giovanni, December 30, 2008
written by Wondering, January 21, 2009
I am not sure if I am doing my math right. if I buy a 2000 Watt system, I theoretically get 2kWh right? assuming 8 hours of sunlight that is 16kWh per day or 5840 kWh a year. If my electricity costs $.11 per kWh I have theoretically created $16000 worth of electricity in 25 years (5840x.11x25) right? Realistically I have only created $10000 worth of electricity. Is this right? and is it worth it?
written by Realistic, February 10, 2009
You get a lousy rate for selling back to the utility company, so I'd use up any excess energy in water heating and aeration for a couple of glass-house tilapia ponds. I could feed myself into the bargain!
written by cyrus, February 27, 2009
Cyrus
written by Khan, March 29, 2009
written by altorm, April 04, 2009
that gives weather around the world, in most locations the insolation is rarely more than 6KWhr/sm/day and typically is around 3 to 4 even in the sunniest climes. In Berlin it drops to 0.48 KWhr/sm/day for example in December. Even in Scottsdale Arizona the low is 2.55KWHr/sm/day in December and 7.65 KWHr/sm/day in July.
Thus forgetting other losses such as cloud cover a 1 sm panel rated at 150Watt only delivers on average 255/1,000 x 150 watts = 38.25 watts. Thus in a December day of 10 hours the panel delivers 0.38KWhr NOT 1.5KWHr. In July it would deliver 1.6KWHr in a 14 hour day, not the rated 2.1KWHr/day. Over the year the panel would generate approx. 40% of its nominal rating.
written by Bob, April 11, 2009
Is it not best practice to design your website for the slowest speed ie those who have only dial up? or have a button for text only, and not all the adds from adsever etc etc
Regards Bob
written by DjAdidas, May 11, 2009
written by Dan VK, June 08, 2009
written by Arvind, June 24, 2009
written by Stephen, July 19, 2009
written by J.C. Ebbing, November 14, 2009
I saw a blurb on one of the Discovery channels awhile back. A researcher out in Nevada had found a way to harness the juice from a lightning strike - using a huge lightning rod and a massive power inverter. When you consider that a typical lightning strike is well over a million volts... the implication is staggering... I don't know what an installation like that would cost, and you'd have to have a way to store the energy, but I bet it'd be way cheaper than solar.
written by sintered metal, November 16, 2009
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